We have a Democrat-controlled U.S. House of Representatives. It looks as though the Senate will follow suit. It's very interesting. I won't hide that I'm disappointed. It reminds me of 1992. George Bush (senior) was running for reelection and Bill Clinton won the Democratic nomination.
In 1992 Clinton ran on the catch phrase "change." "America needs a change," he would quip ad nauseum. The trouble was he never defined what that change would be. Bush was coming off the most successful military exercises in history with the 100 hour Gulf War aka Operation Desert Storm. Clinton was the governor in Arkansas, a state with an economic and educational record (under his stewardship) that was near the worst in America. One would think Bush wins in a landslide, and most of us Republicans thought so too. Not so. Apparently for the American electorate, "change" was good enough. It was apparently unimportant what change actually meant, so we elected Clinton.
Here's where it becomes very similar.
In 2006 the Bush administration is overseeing a healthy economy, the highest stock trading numbers in history, the highest home ownership levels in American history and a successful record of protecting America from further attacks since 9/11. This year the Democratic strategy was to use this same, vague notion of "change." Again, like Clinton in '92, the Dems had no actual record on which to run and/or refused to share details of what that "change" actually means. Chuck Schumer (D- NY) said that they wouldn't reveal their agenda/strategy for governing because "it would just give Republicans a target." So they kept on with "change." No details of a plan or an agenda, mind you, just something different.
Change, according to Dictionary.com means -
| 1. |
to make the form, nature, content, future course, etc., of (something) different from what it is or from what it would be if left alone: to change one's name; to change one's opinion; to change the course of history.
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So it's interesting to me that the Democrats won, and won handily yesterday. Here's my take on why.
1. Republicans suck at communicating their ideas (witness the Bush White House for 6 years)
There are plenty of compelling reasons to continue in Iraq, and to have gone there in the first place, but all you ever hear about is WMD's, suicide bombers, insurgents and American casualties. The economy is better than it ever was under the "Clinton glory days," but all you hear is that it's slowing, or Enron comparisons or that only rich people get tax cuts. Had the Republicans communicated effectively about those two issues alone (never mind homeland security success) they likely could have had 60 seats in the Senate and 250-255 in the House.
2. The media hates the Iraq war.
First there are serious problems in Iraq (it is after all a war). That being said, it doesn't matter how well the troops do, how many Iraqi's voted, how successful training Iraqi's to protect themselves goes. The American press hates this war. You're not going to hear about the good things in Iraq unless you're a. in Iraq, b. know a soldier in Iraq or c. you're President Bush. It's amazing that the war in Iraq is likely more popular with Iraqi's than it is in America. Again there are problems there, but this is nothing like Vietnam, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either stupid, or selling you something you don't want to buy.
3. Power corrupts/Scandals.
Nearly a full third (30%) of Evangelicals voted Democratic this year according to exit polling. Witness the recent Mark Foley (R-FL) and Ted Haggard(see article below for more detail) scandals. Both of which mysteriously disappeared from the headlines today and yesterday. And both of which upon discovery resigned, apologized and were handled properly in rapid, efficient form.
The other interesting thing to note here is the Democratic handling of similar scandals in their own ranks. When Republican/conservative/evangelicals are at the center of these Democrats call for their immediate removal - rightly so. When Democrats are accused they issue an apology (sometimes) and continue in power for years.
So regardless of the Dems or Repubs handling of their respective failings, values and integrity matter to Americans, or at least to swing-voting Americans.
4. Values & Ballot Initiatives
There is an interesting lesson here when you look at the congressional elections in connection with ballot initiatives across the nation. What they tell me is that this is likely backlash from the above issues, but the vast majority of initiatives - which tend to have closer ties to everyday life - passed or failed largely along conservative/value voter lines even though they were largely outspent by the liberal issue backers. Gay marriage, immigration, taxes, government limits et al were on the ballot in many states and regardless of elected official race results - these issues fell along value-based voting lines. Since these are all down-ballot from the races, and they are designed in part to get out the vote for particular candidates/parties, they usually fall along a coat-tail trend. If Democrats win, liberal issues usually fair well and vice versa. but that was not the case this year. democrats won, but conservative issues did also. A clear vote for- uh, balance?
At the end of the day, this isn't going to destroy our country, no matter what ultra-conservative talk radio may say. I think there will be some consequences. We may lose some tax benefits, judges awaiting approval after presidential appointment will continue to be delayed, and the war in Iraq may get worse. But the Democrats may surprise us and actually work to make things better, instead of their usual tactic of not actually doing anything on an issue so they can continue to use it in elections.
One thing is sure, if Republicans hope to recapture congress in 2 years, let alone retain the Presidency, they better learn that communicating ideas, and staying true to values are the keys to turn out. Republicans have been winning since 1994 because people perceived them to be the party that reflected their values - that can change on dime as we've seen this year.
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